BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests a bit and I like the new selection of competitions and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy and $30k belongs to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m really not loving this slate to get cash games, and I was just going to pick the principal event stack for my money game play of this week. But, I will see the major event only scoring ~100 total points and when I’m stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young creates a fantastic cash game play. I don’t know how high of a ceiling he has since I really do think this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he’s a high floor because this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this battle with a combination of wrestling and striking. I really do think he’s 100-point upside in a decision, and I also think he could finish this fight. However, I feel like he’s a secure play for 80+ and that is why he’s my cash game play of this week rather than my GPP play. GPP play of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this battle is by becoming KO’d. He should be the far superior fighter on the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does have heavy power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 points, but that is why he’s my GPP play of the week and not my cash game play of the week. In money, I wish to lock in higher floors and that’s not what we’ve got here. I enjoy this for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many points he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we could still come off with a gain if he dropped a decision at the price and scored 30-40 points, we’d just have to hit on our other areas. We do not want 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 because he has 100+ upside because he will be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him becoming multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he gets a 1st or 2nd round entry and I do not expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who might be popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to remain standing for as long as it continues. I personally find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that’s the case, then I think Gastelum has the highest floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a reasonable number of shots. I also believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not put him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he will probably be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3k salary. That is why he’s my underdog drama of the week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on new with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have chosen him as my fade every time he’s fought so that I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is just not valuable for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score tremendously is by getting a win. He fails to strike a high enough speed to score highly in a decision and he won’t be going for any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be adequate to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x from a fighter once I roll them and together with his $7.9k price label, so I want at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that is why he’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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